CALCULATORS · RISK OF RUIN

Risk of ruin calculator

A positive edge does not protect you from a bad run. This is the chance the bad run takes the account before the edge arrives.

Can I survive the variance?

Most blown accounts had a real edge and too much size. Risk of ruin is the number that connects the two, and it moves violently with risk per trade — halving your risk does far more than doubling your win rate.

HOW IT WORKS

Four steps, in order

1

Enter your win rate and reward-to-risk.

2

Set the risk you take per trade.

3

Choose the drawdown you would call ruin.

4

Compare it against half and double the risk.

Risk of ruin

3,000 simulated runs of 500 trades at fixed-fractional risk

Chance of ruin
0.00%
At half the risk
0.00%
At double the risk
0.30%
Edge per trade
+35.0%

Frequent questions

Short, practical answers. Trade-offs explained, no advice framing.

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