EMA pullback strategy backtest results

The short answer

Answers here: Does the pullback to the 20 EMA work? · What is the win rate? · Long only, or both ways?

What the script does

EMA Pullback Strategy, from the strategy library.

The numbers, run by run

Net and holding the symbol are after costs over the same period. Held-out is the verdict on the last third of the history judged alone: survived, decayed, did not survive, or too few trades to judge.

Year by year

20/50 on SPY, long and short, the same rule long only, and SPY itself, each calendar year after costs. A partial first or last year counts the sessions it has.

Every trade

The 109 trades of 20/50 on SPY, long and short, oldest first: side, entry and exit days, fill prices after slippage, and the return after both commissions. The other runs' trades open below.

The script

Pine v6, exactly as it ran for 20/50 on SPY, long and short. The variants change only the inputs listed in the table.

//@version=6
strategy("EMA Pullback Strategy", overlay=true, default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value=100, initial_capital=100000, commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=0.05, slippage=1, margin_long=0, margin_short=0)

src      = input.source(close, "Source", group="Lengths")
fastLen  = input.int(20, "Pullback EMA", minval=1, group="Lengths")
slowLen  = input.int(50, "Trend EMA", minval=2, group="Lengths")
useLong  = input.bool(true, "Trade longs", group="Direction")
useShort = input.bool(true, "Trade shorts", group="Direction")
atrLen   = input.int(14, "ATR length", minval=1, group="Risk")
stopMult = input.float(2, "Stop (ATR multiples, 0 = off)", minval=0, step=0.5, group="Risk")
tpMult   = input.float(3, "Target (ATR multiples, 0 = off)", minval=0, step=0.5, group="Risk")

fast = ta.ema(src, fastLen)
slow = ta.ema(src, slowLen)
atr  = ta.atr(atrLen)

upTrend = fast > slow and close > slow
dnTrend = fast < slow and close < slow
// the pullback: the previous bar closed on the wrong side of the fast EMA, this one closed back on the trend's side
longSig   = upTrend and close[1] < fast[1] and close > fast and barstate.isconfirmed
shortSig  = dnTrend and close[1] > fast[1] and close < fast and barstate.isconfirmed
exitLong  = ta.crossunder(close, slow) and barstate.isconfirmed
exitShort = ta.crossover(close, slow) and barstate.isconfirmed

pFast = plot(fast, "Pullback EMA", color=color.new(#A3A39E, 0), linewidth=1)
pSlow = plot(slow, "Trend EMA", color=upTrend ? color.new(#16A56A, 0) : dnTrend ? color.new(#E5484D, 0) : color.new(#A3A39E, 0), linewidth=2)
fill(pFast, pSlow, color=upTrend ? color.new(#16A56A, 90) : dnTrend ? color.new(#E5484D, 90) : color.new(#A3A39E, 94), title="Trend fill")

if longSig and useLong
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
    strategy.exit("Long exit", "Long", stop=stopMult > 0 ? close - stopMult * atr : na, limit=tpMult > 0 ? close + tpMult * atr : na)
if shortSig and useShort
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short)
    strategy.exit("Short exit", "Short", stop=stopMult > 0 ? close + stopMult * atr : na, limit=tpMult > 0 ? close - tpMult * atr : na)
if exitLong
    strategy.close("Long")
if exitShort
    strategy.close("Short")

How it was tested

Alpaca daily data since 2016, 0.05% commission and 0.025% slippage on every fill, the last third of the history held out, textbook settings and nothing tuned. The engine, fills and what it does not model are written out once, in data and methodology.

Questions