CALCULATORS · BREAK-EVEN

Break-even win rate calculator

Every reward-to-risk ratio has a win rate below which it loses money. Find yours, then check whether you clear it.

What do I have to hit?

At 1:1 you need better than half. At 1:3 you can be wrong seven times in ten and still be flat. Knowing the threshold turns a vague feeling about a setup into a number you can test.

HOW IT WORKS

Four steps, in order

1

Enter the reward and the risk of the setup.

2

Read the win rate it needs to break even.

3

Add the win rate you actually achieve.

4

See whether you clear the bar.

Break-even win rate

p = 1 ÷ (1 + reward ÷ risk)

Reward to risk
2.00 : 1
Break-even win rate
33.33%
Your edge over it
+11.7%
Expectancy per trade
+0.35R

Frequent questions

Short, practical answers. Trade-offs explained, no advice framing.

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