BACKTEST STUDY · NQ FUTURES

The ICT Silver Bullet broke even on NQ. London lost every time

21 versions on two years of real NQ and ES data, costs charged. The classic 10:00 to 11:00 version won 35.7% of 328 trades and made $756 a micro contract. Copy the script, or run your own version free.

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ICT Silver Bullet · 10:00–11:00 New York, 2RMNQ1! · 5-minute · 23 October 2024 → 22 October 2026
Net, a contract
+$756
Trades
328
Won
35.7%
Profit factor
1.03
First 16 months+$1,738
Last 8 months−$983
Oct 2024Feb 2026Oct 2026

The $50,000 account after each of its 328 trades: one micro contract a trade, $2.50 a contract each side and a tick of slippage.

  • Checked 5 November 2026
  • CME data, 23 October 2024 → 22 October 2026 · 2 years · 517 sessions
  • $2.50 a contract each side + 1 tick of slippage
  • One micro contract a trade, flat by 15:55 New York
  • last third: 24 February 2026 → 22 October 2026 · 8 months
  • Updated 8 November 2026

The 10:00 hour made money in 5 of 6 versions. London in 0 of 6

Every MNQ version over the two years, by the Silver Bullet hour: each square is one target (1R, 2R or 3R), both ways or long only. On ES the 10:00 hour made money in 0 of 3.

New York AM · 10:00–11:00 New York5 of 6 made money
London · 03:00–04:00 New York0 of 6 made money
New York PM · 14:00–15:00 New York2 of 6 made money
ES · 10:00–11:00 New York0 of 3 made money

Each square is one version over the two years, after costs: green made money, red lost it. The long-only squares rode a market that rose about 44% in those two years.

21 versions · MNQ and MES · 5-minute candles · 517 sessions
Made money over two years
7 of 21
23 October 2024 → 22 October 2026
Made money in the last 8 months
9 of 21
24 February 2026 → 22 October 2026 · 8 months
Win rate, classic 2R
35.7%
328 trades on 5-minute, 35.0% on 1-minute
Classic on 1-minute
−$374
454 trades, profit factor 0.98

The script

Every run used it; change the window, the target or the direction at the top to run any other row. Copy it into TradingView, or press Run and it opens on MNQ in the terminal with its backtest done.

ICT Silver Bullet, 10:00–11:00 New York, 2R

Inside the hour, the first fair value gap sets a limit order at the gap's near edge, the stop beyond the gap's first candle and the target twice the risk away. One setup a window, an order left unfilled at the hour's end is cancelled, and a trade still open is closed by 15:55 New York.

Trades
328
Won
35.7%
Profit factor
1.03
Net
+1.5%
Worst drawdown
−5.0%
Worst trade
−$443

MNQ1! · 5-minute · 23 October 2024 → 22 October 2026 · 2 years · 517 sessions · $2.50 a contract each side, one tick of slippage, one micro contract a trade

Pine Script v6 · 64 linesRun this script
//@version=6
// Suggested timeframe: 5-minute
strategy("ICT Silver Bullet (New York 10:00-11:00)", overlay=true, initial_capital=50000, default_qty_type=strategy.fixed, default_qty_value=1, commission_type=strategy.commission.cash_per_contract, commission_value=2.5, slippage=1, margin_long=0, margin_short=0)

// The ICT Silver Bullet, written as rules: inside the one-hour window, the first fair value gap
// (three candles, the third's low above the first's high, or its high below the first's low) sets
// a limit order at the gap's near edge, a stop beyond the first candle and a target a fixed
// multiple of the risk away. One setup a window; an order not filled by the window's end is
// cancelled; a trade still open is closed before the cash close.
win = input.session("1000-1100", "Silver Bullet window (New York)")
rr = input.float(2.0, "Target, times the risk", minval=0.5, step=0.5)
sideMode = input.string("Both", "Direction", options=["Both", "Long only", "Short only"])
flatAt = input.int(1555, "Flat by (HHMM, New York)")

inWin = not na(time(timeframe.period, win, "America/New_York"))
nyMins = hour(time, "America/New_York") * 60 + minute(time, "America/New_York")
flatMins = math.floor(flatAt / 100) * 60 + flatAt % 100

bullGap = low > high[2]
bearGap = high < low[2]

var bool done = false
var int pending = 0
var float lim = na
var float stp = na
var float tgt = na

dNY = dayofmonth(time, "America/New_York")
if dNY != dNY[1]
    done := false
    pending := 0

if inWin and not done and pending == 0 and strategy.position_size == 0
    if bullGap and sideMode != "Short only"
        lim := low
        stp := low[2]
        tgt := lim + rr * (lim - stp)
        strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, limit=lim)
        strategy.exit("Long exit", "Long", stop=stp, limit=tgt)
        pending := 1
        done := true
    else if bearGap and sideMode != "Long only"
        lim := high
        stp := high[2]
        tgt := lim - rr * (stp - lim)
        strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, limit=lim)
        strategy.exit("Short exit", "Short", stop=stp, limit=tgt)
        pending := -1
        done := true

if pending != 0 and strategy.position_size != 0
    pending := 0
if pending != 0 and not inWin and strategy.position_size == 0
    strategy.cancel("Long")
    strategy.cancel("Short")
    pending := 0

if strategy.position_size != 0 and nyMins >= flatMins
    strategy.close_all(comment="Flat by the close")

plotshape(inWin and bullGap and pending == 1 and pending[1] == 0, "Long setup", shape.triangleup, location.belowbar, color.new(#16A56A, 0), size=size.tiny)
plotshape(inWin and bearGap and pending == -1 and pending[1] == 0, "Short setup", shape.triangledown, location.abovebar, color.new(#E5484D, 0), size=size.tiny)
bgcolor(inWin ? color.new(#A3A39E, 92) : na, title="Window")

What Run opens

The Alpha Charts terminal with this page's script already on MNQ 5-minute. These are its own screens from that run.

The terminal's chat with the Silver Bullet script read, put on the chart and backtested, and its reply
It lands on MNQ 5-minute and runs. The Copilot reads the script, puts it on the chart and runs the backtest. Ask it why a trade went the way it did, or tell it what to change: it edits the script and runs it again.
MNQ 5-minute on 15 October 2026 with the 10:00 to 11:00 hour shaded, a long at the gap's edge and the target hit for +1.2%
Every trade on the chart. 15 October 2026: the 10:00 hour shaded, long at the gap's edge just after 10:00, the 2R target hit in the afternoon for +1.2%.
The terminal's results: +1.5% net, 328 trades, 35.7% won, the 18 months in sample against the last 6 months, which did not survive
The results, with the months it never saw. The terminal holds back the last 6 months by default: +4.1% in the 18 months before them, −2.5% in them, and it says the result did not survive.

Run your version free

Change the hour, the target or the direction, or paste your own Silver Bullet. It runs on the same CME data with the same costs, and every trade is on the chart.

Free account

No card, no time limit.

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The short answer

The ICT Silver Bullet about broke even on NQ futures over two years. The classic version, 10:00 to 11:00 New York with a 2R target, won 35.7% of its 328 trades on 5-minute candles and made $756 a micro contract after costs, a profit factor of 1.03. The same rules on 1-minute candles won 35.0% and lost $374.

The hour mattered more than the settings. The New York AM hour made money in 5 of 6 versions on MNQ, the London hour in 0 of 6 and the New York PM hour in 2 of 6, and on ES the morning hour lost in all 3. The versions that made the most traded long only while the market rose about 44%.

Two years of one setup on two markets, with the rules fixed before the runs and no setting tuned on the last eight months. Price results after modelled costs, not a forecast.

The rules

The same script in every run; only the hour, the target and the direction change.

  1. The hour, New York time: 03:00 to 04:00 (London), 10:00 to 11:00 (New York AM) or 14:00 to 15:00 (New York PM).
  2. The setup: the first fair value gap inside the hour, three candles where the third's low is above the first's high (long) or its high below the first's low (short).
  3. The entry: a limit order at the gap's near edge, the third candle's low for a long and its high for a short, cancelled if it is not filled by the hour's end.
  4. The stop: beyond the first candle, its low for a long and its high for a short. The target: 1, 2 or 3 times the risk.
  5. One setup an hour, one micro contract a trade, and flat by 15:55 New York. Long-only versions skip the shorts.

All 21 versions

Dollars a contract after costs, with the last 8 months shown first. They are 24 February 2026 → 22 October 2026 · 8 months.

VersionLast 8 monthsFirst 16 monthsTwo yearsTradesWonProfit factor
MNQ · 10:00–11:00 · 1R+$176+$576+$75232853.0%1.04
MNQ · 10:00–11:00 · 2R−$983+$1,738+$75632835.7%1.03
MNQ · 10:00–11:00 · 3R−$2,046+$1,948−$9832829.9%1.00
MNQ · 10:00–11:00 · 1R · long only+$1,456−$1,238+$21822552.9%1.02
MNQ · 10:00–11:00 · 2R · long only+$2,602−$960+$1,64222539.1%1.09
MNQ · 10:00–11:00 · 3R · long only+$2,952−$1,347+$1,60522534.7%1.09
MNQ · 03:00–04:00 · 1R−$703−$1,732−$2,43635947.4%0.74
MNQ · 03:00–04:00 · 2R−$378−$308−$68535935.4%0.94
MNQ · 03:00–04:00 · 3R−$2,197+$494−$1,70335926.2%0.87
MNQ · 03:00–04:00 · 1R · long only−$502−$1,161−$1,66427249.6%0.77
MNQ · 03:00–04:00 · 2R · long only+$618−$1,208−$58927235.7%0.94
MNQ · 03:00–04:00 · 3R · long only−$321−$1,022−$1,34227226.1%0.87
MNQ · 14:00–15:00 · 1R−$199−$1,312−$1,51232249.7%0.87
MNQ · 14:00–15:00 · 2R+$1,107−$2,240−$1,13332234.8%0.92
MNQ · 14:00–15:00 · 3R+$379−$2,215−$1,83632230.4%0.88
MNQ · 14:00–15:00 · 1R · long only−$154+$56−$9822451.3%0.99
MNQ · 14:00–15:00 · 2R · long only+$802+$305+$1,10822437.5%1.12
MNQ · 14:00–15:00 · 3R · long only+$395+$407+$80222434.8%1.08
MES · 10:00–11:00 · 1R−$338−$984−$1,32131753.0%0.86
MES · 10:00–11:00 · 2R−$1,121−$568−$1,68931736.9%0.87
MES · 10:00–11:00 · 3R−$811−$144−$95531732.8%0.93

5‑minute or 1‑minute candles

The classic version on both candle sizes over the same two years. Which year paid and which side paid flipped.

Classic version5-minute1-minute
Trades328454
Won35.7%35.0%
Profit factor1.030.98
Two years+$756−$374
First 16 months+$1,738−$2,781
Last 8 months−$983+$2,407
2025+$2,150−$3,006
2026 to 22 October−$982+$2,632
Longs+$2,180−$1,053
Shorts−$1,424+$679

Year by year

The classic version on MNQ 5-minute, in dollars a contract from its trade list.

YearTradesResult
2024 (from 23 Oct)33−$412
2025159+$2,150
2026 (to 22 Oct)136−$982

Test your own version, free

Run this script and change it in the terminal, or paste your own ICT setup into the free NQ futures backtester. The same CME data and per-contract costs, the same check on the last third and every trade on the chart. No card.

More ICT setups, tested the same way

Each on the same two years of CME data, with every version and the months it never saw.

Questions

What is the ICT Silver Bullet's win rate?

About 35% with a 2R target. The classic version, 10:00 to 11:00 New York on MNQ, won 35.7% of 328 trades on 5-minute candles and 35.0% of 454 on 1-minute candles, 23 October 2024 to 22 October 2026. With a 1R target it won about half its trades, with 3R about 30%. A 2R target needs a win rate above a third to pay for its losses, so 35% is about break-even before costs.

Does the ICT Silver Bullet work on NQ?

In this test it about broke even. Over two years the classic version made $756 a micro contract on 5-minute candles (profit factor 1.03) and lost $374 on 1-minute candles (0.98). 7 of 21 versions made money over the two years, and which year paid flipped with the candle size: 2025 made $2,150 on 5-minute and lost $3,006 on 1-minute.

Which Silver Bullet window is best, London, New York AM or PM?

The New York AM hour, 10:00 to 11:00: 5 of its 6 MNQ versions made money over two years. The London hour, 03:00 to 04:00, made money in 0 of 6, and the New York PM hour, 14:00 to 15:00, in 2 of 6, both of them long only.

Does the Silver Bullet work on ES?

Not in this test. On MES, the 10:00 to 11:00 hour with both directions lost in all 3 versions (1R, 2R and 3R), between $955 and $1,689 a micro contract over two years.

Should the Silver Bullet be traded on 1-minute or 5-minute candles?

Neither held up. The same rules on the same two years made $756 on 5-minute candles and lost $374 on 1-minute ones. The last six months of 1-minute candles looked good on their own, 105 trades, 44.8% won and a profit factor of 1.63, but on 1-minute the first 16 months lost $2,781.

Which data and costs were used?

CME's minutes for the continuous MNQ and MES contracts, built into 5-minute candles (and 1-minute for the check), 23 October 2024 to 22 October 2026, 517 sessions. $2.50 a contract each side and one tick of slippage, one micro contract a trade, one setup a window, flat by 15:55 New York.

Can I run the Silver Bullet on my own settings?

Yes. The script is on this page; Run this script opens the Alpha Charts terminal on MNQ 5-minute with the script on the chart and its backtest done. Change the window, the target or the direction at the top, or ask the Copilot to, and see every trade on the chart. A free account runs as many tests as you like, no card.

Every number here is the output of the Alpha Charts backtest engine on 5 November 2026, on CME futures data. Past results are not a forecast and nothing here is investment advice. ICT and the Silver Bullet are Michael J. Huddleston's terms; TradingView and Pine Script belong to TradingView, Inc. Alpha Charts is not affiliated with either.

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